Nonparametric Series Estimation of Cointegrated Systems with Time–Varying Coefficients

We develop a nonparametric series estimation framework for cointegrated systems with time-varying coefficients and propose an easy-to-implement, asymptotically efficient extension of the dynamic OLS estimator.

October 2026 · Yu Bai, Jiti Gao, Hsein Kew

Optimal bandwidth selection for forecasting under parameter instability

This paper investigates practical issues associated with the use of the local estimator in forecasting models subject to parameter instability.

February 2026 · Yu Bai, Bin Peng, Shuping Shi, Wenying Yao

Local GMM Estimation for Nonparametric Time-Varying Coefficient Moment Condition Models

This paper develops a local continuously updated GMM estimator for nonparametric time-varying coefficient moment condition models.

February 2025 · Yu Bai

Mean group instrumental variable estimation of time-varying large heterogeneous panels with endogenous regressors

This paper considers a large heterogeneous panel data models with time-varying parameters and endogenous regressors.

June 2023 · Yu Bai, Massimiliano Marcellino, George Kapetanios

Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi-country context

This paper proposes a hierarchical shrinkage approach for multi-country VAR models and finds that it works particularly well for inflation forecasting.

July 2022 · Yu Bai, Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino

A Monte Carlo comparison of GMM and QMLE estimators for short dynamic panel data models with spatial errors

This paper proposes a generalized spatial system GMM (SGMM) estimation for short dynamic panel data models with spatial errors and fixed effects.

October 2017 · Yu Bai, Shaofu Zhou, Zhaoyuan Fan